NYMEX Oil Complex Rallies Again Despite No Supply Disruptions
The NYMEX November crude contract set a new all time record intraday high of $88.20 and a new all time record settle of $87.61 as the bulls continue to buy contracts on worries about virtually anything, with today's concern centered on Iraqi Kirkuk crude shipments to Turkey could be disrupted if Turkey crosses into Iraq to stem the attacks by Kurdish rebels. At the same time, November NYMEX products, while higher, were again outpaced by crude; a scenario that confuses everyone in the oil markets, as products are consumed and should dictate where crude oil prices go. To the best of our knowledge, there has not been one barrel of Iraqi crude held off the market due to the political problems now facing Turkey and Iraq.
In fact we believe there is a better chance that a diplomatic solution will be the eventual outcome to the current situation. However, even if that is not correct we maintain that alternate supplies would be easy to come by as other OPEC producers have more that 3.0 million bpd of excess capacity. We are fairly certain that crude oil from Northern Iraq is no more than 600,000 bpd on a good day.
If there is no diplomatic solution and Turkey moves into Iraq, crude oil heads to $100 per barrel, on the loss of 600,000 barrels per day. What if a solution is found and nothing happens? The bulls will find something else.
We see little reason for prices to set a new all time high in overnight trading and believe profit-taking is in order in front of tomorrow's EIA inventory estimates for the week ending October 12. Nearly all the estimates we have seen from other news services and our own call for crude oil stocks to be higher by 1.0 to 4.0 million barrels. In addition, gasoline supplies are expected to increase by 400,000 barrels to slightly more that 1.0 million barrels. Distillate supplies are expected to drop slightly from the previous week, which we believe has to do more with jobbers and wholesalers filling their tanks in preparation for winter, rather than due to consumption.
November WTI settled at $87.61, up $1.48 from Monday's settle. November RBOB gasoline settled 1.62 cents up from yesterday's settle of $2.1737. November heating oil settled 3.15 cents per gallon above Monday's $2.3387 settle.
November domestic crude grade trading was slow today although there were a number trades reported. LLS was done between $0.75 and $0.90 premiums to WTI while HLS was last done at a $1.30 discount. Mars sour was done between $10.55 and $10.75 discounts. Poseidon sour was done between $10.50 and $10.70 discounts. WTS was done at a $6.50 discount.
Cash product trading was spotty again today with most cash differentials for gasoline and heating oil slightly weaker as buyers lower their buy numbers due to the surge in NYMEX product prices, and very limited demand.
The November paper Brent market last traded at $84.19 per barrel.
In fact we believe there is a better chance that a diplomatic solution will be the eventual outcome to the current situation. However, even if that is not correct we maintain that alternate supplies would be easy to come by as other OPEC producers have more that 3.0 million bpd of excess capacity. We are fairly certain that crude oil from Northern Iraq is no more than 600,000 bpd on a good day.
If there is no diplomatic solution and Turkey moves into Iraq, crude oil heads to $100 per barrel, on the loss of 600,000 barrels per day. What if a solution is found and nothing happens? The bulls will find something else.
We see little reason for prices to set a new all time high in overnight trading and believe profit-taking is in order in front of tomorrow's EIA inventory estimates for the week ending October 12. Nearly all the estimates we have seen from other news services and our own call for crude oil stocks to be higher by 1.0 to 4.0 million barrels. In addition, gasoline supplies are expected to increase by 400,000 barrels to slightly more that 1.0 million barrels. Distillate supplies are expected to drop slightly from the previous week, which we believe has to do more with jobbers and wholesalers filling their tanks in preparation for winter, rather than due to consumption.
November WTI settled at $87.61, up $1.48 from Monday's settle. November RBOB gasoline settled 1.62 cents up from yesterday's settle of $2.1737. November heating oil settled 3.15 cents per gallon above Monday's $2.3387 settle.
November domestic crude grade trading was slow today although there were a number trades reported. LLS was done between $0.75 and $0.90 premiums to WTI while HLS was last done at a $1.30 discount. Mars sour was done between $10.55 and $10.75 discounts. Poseidon sour was done between $10.50 and $10.70 discounts. WTS was done at a $6.50 discount.
Cash product trading was spotty again today with most cash differentials for gasoline and heating oil slightly weaker as buyers lower their buy numbers due to the surge in NYMEX product prices, and very limited demand.
The November paper Brent market last traded at $84.19 per barrel.
entrada de Gekko a las
6:16 p. m.
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